Showing posts with label IIPM Best B School. Show all posts
Showing posts with label IIPM Best B School. Show all posts

Thursday, October 11, 2012

Heavy weight champ

Telang’s background in operations and his experience with the successful Commercial Vehicles business will be an asset

As Jack Welch once said, “If you pick the right people and give them the opportunity to spread their wings and put compensation as a carrier behind it you almost don’t have to manage them.” Ratan Tata has done exactly the same in Tata Motors, which is one of the key reasons why the company is the market leader in the Commercial Vehicles segment and more importantly, produces almost half of the Commercial Vehicles sold in the country. Well, P. M. Telang, Executive Director (Commercial Vehicles), Tata Motors would have a lot to do with that, for he is the man standing behind this success.

A Mechanical Engineer and an MBA from IIM-Ahemdabad, Telang has over three decades of experience in the automotive industry as he has been with Tata Motors since 1972. In his previous role as President (Light & Small Commercial Vehicles), Telang played a major role in ensuring a turnaround in the company through cost cutting and e-procurement. He is also serving as Senior VP (Operations), Pune currently. Overshadowing the success that the company achieved under Ravi Kant’s leadership will certainly not be a cake walk for anyone succeeding him. However, if we talk about the Commercial Vehicle segment of Tata Motors, Telang has been able to take its growth story forward very efficiently. And industry insiders believe that if Telang takes charge; it will surely set the stage for the next phase of growth for Tata Motors. And as auto expert Murad Ali Baig asserts, “The person taking charge of Tata Motors after Ravi Kant leaves should have an in-depth knowledge of the automotive industry apart from the basics of management and finance.”


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.

For More IIPM Info, Visit below mentioned IIPM articles.
 
IIPM : The B-School with a Human Face

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Monday, October 08, 2012

B&E’s Karan Mehrishi dives deep into the auto quagmire and gasps for breath...

 Of course, one has to accept that two years back, Bill Ford had divulged to the media that Ford would be necessarily moving towards more fuel efficient cars. That should have done it, right? Well, there was just a slight little problem. Despite his public statement, Bill never moved towards ‘fuel efficient’ cars! [“The market was pulling us in a different direction,” Bill reveals in BusinessWeek this August]. Dangerously, neither had GM! And we’ve not even started discussing the travails of the down and almost out Chrysler yet, which is perhaps simply looking around for a suitable buyer! The Detroit three, unfortunately, focused horse-headedly on selling SUVs and tough trucks, and investing more and more into R&D [close to $12 billion annually] to recreate products that were doomed from the start! That’s how tough it takes some billion dollar loss makers to understand no-brainer issues.

The no-brainer auto issue #2

I caught up with Christian Breitsprecher, equity analyst at one of Germany’s largest investment banks, Sal Oppenheim, and he commented, “Obviously, the auto industry did not foresee the trends... that one day the price per barrel would be so high. Companies, which do not invest in alternate fuel will go down and hybrids is just an element of the entire investment.”

That brought me to the no-brainer issue number 2, hybrids! To say that it’s the most over-hyped concept in the industry today not worth even the media space it occupies, is to speak the truth. The situation today is such that after testing out, one should say successfully, the concept of fuel efficient cars, car manufacturers today are assuming presumptuously that the next logical step in this hugely competitive world is the hybrid (for the rare uninitiated, a car that runs on a combination of petroleum and another source of energy).

And more so companies that are leading the race, like Toyota, Honda etc. Dramatically, the fact is that even with hugely profitable companies like Toyota and Honda, who believe that with hybrids they have the instant solution for the future, the concept could be a thrashing in disguise. The first structural defect afflicting hybrids is the market share. The hybrid is, in simple terms, before its time, and cannot account for significant market share and usage for the next ten years globally. Illogical you said? Look at the figures even in the world’s top auto market (or is it second already?). In the US, despite being ‘in the news’ for the past decade, only 347,102 hybrids were sold in 2007 (see detailed story later on, ‘Where, Mrs. Robinson, lies the problem’). That means that even with Toyota monopolising a 70% share of the market, and after all the billion dollar global marketing attempted by various auto corporations, hybrids accounted for only a miniscule 2.15% of the total new vehicle sales in the US, and puniest percentages in other global markets.

The second structural defect afflicting hybrids is their pricing. It could well turn out that unless auto companies ensure that the pricing levels of offered hybrids are in tune with mass market expectations – especially in markets like India and China, expected to be the world’s top two in the next five to ten years – they might well start failing. Hybrids are simply not cost effective, and will not be in the next seven to ten years, if at all then. A hybrid, to be rampantly successful, has to be priced in such a range that enables the consumer to perceive its ‘long term’ cost effectiveness over the ‘short term’, thus engaging his buying intent. Confusing? For better clarity, read what Deputy Editor Virat Bahri writes later on in the cover section: “Doubts are often raised about how cost effective hybrids really turn out to be. NuWire Investor’s Cali Zimmerman compared the [price of the] Toyota Camry hybrid with the normal version, and statistically proved that the cost difference cannot be recovered before 13.8 years!!! Even the first hybrid to be introduced in, say, a poor country like India – the Honda Civic – costs a huge Rs.18-22 lakhs.” How does one expect consumers in a poverty-ridden country like India (with per capita GDP just around $1000) to buy such a costly car? Isn’t it then quite a no-brainer issue to say that a hybrid, by its very definition, loses its USP once it is priced higher than even normal cars? Amusingly, not when you look at it from the perspective of billion dollar corporations who refuse to wink when drunk.


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.

For More IIPM Info, Visit below mentioned IIPM articles.
 
IIPM : The B-School with a Human Face
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Saturday, October 06, 2012

“We Perform Better When a Slowdown Occurs!”

Aron Ain, CEO of The Billion Dpllar Enterprise Kronos Inc., In Conversation with Pawan Chabra of B&E, Explaining how after US, UK and Mexico, His Company Plans to Create Waves in The Indian World of Workforce Automation

B&E: While at Kronos, you have dealt with workforce related issues in the West. You have also interacted with Indian business leaders during various forums. And now that you have announced a multi-million dollar investment plan for the Indian market, we ask – how is the Indian CEO mindset different from that of his western counterpart?
Aron Ain (AA): To begin with, I would cite some similarities between the Indian and western business leaders. Both are high-focused, committed and the quality of work of which is produced in India is similar to what see in the developed world as well. There is no doubt about it. But there are differences too, the biggest of them being that the Indian managers have very high ambitions. This is something which you miss in the western work environment, perhaps due to the fact that managers and senior managers in the West have already fulfilled certain sets of requirements in their lives. So, this presents a great opportunity for Indian businesses to grow, as the managers are willing to burn the road.

B&E: So after US, UK and Mexico, you could have chosen any other developing nation, especially in South-East Asia. Why India to invest your dollars?
AA: India is a very important market for us and is therefore a key stepping stone for growth. This is the primary reason why we have announced huge investments for the Indian market. There are many companies in India still which operate on manual processes for handling workforce-related issues, and our competence of getting automation into the system should work well for both the Indian companies and us. More so, India being a knowledge-centric economy, we are very excited to welcome additional skilled Indian workers to join our team of 3000 employees, in our quest to develop, sell, and service software that makes global workforce more productive, everyday.

B&E: During the slowdown period, many companies were struggling with workforce management. At the same time, it could have meant a leaner period for companies like yours. How was your experience during the tough past couple of years? And what behavioural changes, if any, have you noticed during the pre and post-slowdown times?
AA: Actually, our experience at Kronos was quite contrary to what you ask. We had a fairly good time during the recession as the area of work which we are in (workforce management) became a very focussed topic due to the companies looking to trim down their workforce and optimise the output of their manpower. Hence products and services automatically became the need of the hour. In this sense, we are an interesting company – we perform well when matters are good, but better when a slowdown occurs. Talking about the change in workforce mindsets, what we have noticed is that post horrors of the slowdown, people are today thinking less about switching jobs. The inclination is more towards sticking with the company an employee is with for long, rather than looking out greener short-term pastures.


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.

For More IIPM Info, Visit below mentioned IIPM articles.
 
IIPM : The B-School with a Human Face
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Monday, September 10, 2012

Rights behind bars

It’s a burning debate across the World – destroy the sin or the sinner? The issue of voting rights for criminals is a key aspect of that debate. The IIPM Think Tank looks at how various countries approach the issue, and why the prisoner-bashing attitude might not be so wise

On the very face of it, you may not even entertain the idea of allowing criminals to decide the political leaders of India. Yet, a common joke about our great nation remains that while lowly criminals get into prison, the really smart ones get into politics! Subsequently, allowing inmates to vote (currently India prohibits voting by inmates) may not affect the composition of our Parliament too much, considering its existing abysmal state. But their exclusion does bring human rights issues to the fore. We analyse how some major countries look at this issue.

First, the Barack country. There is no federal policy with regards to this issue in US. Different states have different laws on the voting rights of their felons. While Maine and Vermont are the only two states that have no restrictions over voting rights of felons, fourteen states including Alabama, Arizona, Florida or Iowa have disenfranchised the voting rights of inmates. The other 34 states follow a somewhat middle path. Interestingly, around 4.7 million inmates, who comprised 2.3% of the total voting age population, didn’t participate in the 2000 Presidential elections due to voting right restrictions.

A particular research on the 2000 Presidential elections by the noted American Political Science Association has revealed some interesting observations. Irrespective of their disenfranchisement, if felons had been allowed to vote, 35% would have voted in the Presidential elections, and out of those, 70% would have voted for the Democrats. Looking at past elections, evidently, this allowance would have altered the results of three close Senate results – Virginia in 1978 (John Warner [R] would have lost over Andrew Miller [D]), Kentucky in 1984 (Mitch McConnell [R] over Walter Huddleston [D]), and Kentucky again in 1998 (Jim Bunning [R] over Scotty Baesler [D]). There was hope for Al Gore in the 2000 Presidential election as well, had Florida allowed its 614,000 ex-felons to vote.

Moving on to other countries, the 17 European partners, and countries like Bosnia, Canada, South Africa and Israel allow their felons to vote without any restrictions. But courts can withdraw voting rights for up to five years if need be in Germany. Neighbouring France has similar laws, though it rarely uses them. In contrast, countries like Armenia, Brazil, Chile, India, Portugal, Russia and UK have complete restriction over voting rights of inmates.


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.
For More IIPM Info, Visit below mentioned IIPM articles.
 
IIPM : The B-School with a Human Face
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Saturday, September 08, 2012

European “Dissenting” Union

EU needs to come out with customized solutions for member states

Such mass protests that cut across nations are unprecedented since WW II. But then, in a unified Europe, the recent turn of events shouldn’t be so surprising. The resistance against Europe’s recent austerity drive heightened to the extent that protesters hit the streets across the continent. Among all EU nations, Spain saw the most widespread protests while Brussels saw around 100,000 people going on the streets. Angered by the government’s draconian budget cuts and labour-market overhaul, protestors across the Union disrupted day to day activities. The protest is actually against the governments’ decision to bring deficits under control by cutting public spending. This measure is the last ditch resort by the EU as most investors are denying requests for lending to member nations.

The European Central Bank and Germany are the prime supporters of such measures. Such steps by the EU government seems to have originated from the situation they found themselves in post the recent Greece crisis and the issues the nation faced with maturing debt. But such measures are deteriorating workforce confidence as working class are of the view that they are being penalised for no fault of theirs. In Greece, the protest is chiefly from officials who enjoy special tax free allowances and hefty pensions – not surprisingly, this class is also famous for notable corruption; while in Spain, the public sector trade unions are the main protesters as they would suffer a pay cut and a rise in the legal retirement age. Likewise in Belgium, normal and conventional shop workers are on strike as the government plans to lay-off nearly 2,000 people from stores and depots.


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.
For More IIPM Info, Visit below mentioned IIPM articles.
 
IIPM : The B-School with a Human Face
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Thursday, September 06, 2012

Slum free cities a realty ‘reality’?

While Mumbai, the host to the biggest slum in Asia still has a long way to go before it can become slum free, there are momentous changes that hold the promise of transforming India. B&E meets up with slum Developers, PE investors and of course, the government for an update!  
 
It seems Mumbai’s neighbouring city Pune is all set to religiously win the race to complete slum rehabilitation projects and hand over flats to slum dwellers free-of-cost. While slum dwellers living in Mumbai currently lack the opportunity of owning a 269 sq ft carpet area flat, slum rehabilitation projects are gaining momentum in neighbouring Pune city. There is, in fact, a lot of action taking place in slum rehabilitation in Pune with a host of small and large scale developers bringing out projects with 2 BHK and 1 BHK flats by various regional builders free-of-cost.

For builders developing slum rehabilitation projects in Pune, viability is the biggest challenge for them, opines Lalit Kumar Jain, Chairman and Managing Director, Kumar Urban Development Limited (KUL), one of the major slum developers in Pune. “In order to combat the challenge, we are in the process of meeting slum dwellers face-to-face. As part of the agreement process, the proof of their thumb impression, photo identity will be kept with Slum Rehabiliation Association and Seva Kendra people. We will also ensure safety of the slum dwellers by providing them with transit camps till the time project comes up.”

“Our project is aimed at meeting the evolving needs of slum dwellers based on the fact that we have given opportunity to slum dwellers to choose innovative 2BHK uniform flat design of their choice so that 6 to 7 people can be accommodated per flat within the SRA project.” says Jain. A major issue with Pune slum families is that it is the women who contribute to family income by washing utensils and clothes in the middle and upper middle class houses in the area. For the same, builders have charted out plans to set up separate cottage industries for men and women with a corpus to sustain it in the remaining area.

Off late, builders in Mumbai are understood to be making a beeline for developing slum projects in the city. Some of the major factors favouring developers move to slum development projects in Pune are cheap entry capital and too steep clear land costs in Mumbai. “Indiareit is close to investing Rs.20-30 crore in two slum redevelopment projects in the city”, says Ramesh Jogani, MD and CEO of Indiareit Fund Advisors Private Ltd, a private equity fund promoted by Piramal Group Jogani. 

Interestingly, over 100 slum projects are going on in Mumbai currently, involving 2.50 lakh homes. The Union and state governments are aiming for a slum-free Mumbai by 2015. When contacted, S S Zhende, Chief Executive Officer, Slum Rehabilitation Authority (SRA) told B&E, “There is a clutch of new developers who are sending in proposals for slum projects, particularly after the floor space index (FSI) was raised to 3 from 2.5 in such ventures last year. With higher FSIs, firms get additional construction rights for development.” Zhende also credits the high-powered committee formed last year to settle disputes between slum developers and authorities for making the projects more attractive to developers. 


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.
For More IIPM Info, Visit below mentioned IIPM articles.
 
IIPM : The B-School with a Human Face
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Wednesday, September 05, 2012

Could technology be weakening the ability of our minds to learn?

The counter point is that the Internet makes us smarter. Using Google Search to find details or look-up phone numbers on your phone is no different from visiting the library or checking the telephone directory – in effect, these are our ‘extended minds’. This concept was introduced in 1998 by Prof. Andy Clark (University of Edinburgh) and Prof. David Chalmers (Australian National University). Prof. Chalmers provided B&E with an example, “My iPhone is not my tool, or at least it is not wholly my tool. Parts of it have become parts of me. This is the thesis of the extended mind: when parts of the environment are coupled to the brain in the right way, they become parts of the mind.”

A 2008 UCLA survey of adults aged 55 -78 found that just a week of Internet experience enhances brain activity patterns and cognition. Further study shows that Internet research boosts the ability to process information and make decisions. Explains Dr. Teena Moody, of Center for Cognitive Neurosciences at UCLA, “The potential upside, is that even older people can benefit by learning to recruit additional regions of their brains after “Googling” the Internet for a short period of time. Many companies are beginning to exploit this opportunity by developing games to enhance specific aspects of learning.

”It seems the ball is in each of our courts to make the best use of the wealth of information that technology has to offer. Google may happily do the hard work for us, but its value will depend on what we as individuals can bring to the table.


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.
For More IIPM Info, Visit below mentioned IIPM articles.
 
IIPM : The B-School with a Human Face




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Tuesday, September 04, 2012

Forced to go in for C-section deliveries by doctors, women are finding it safer to give birth at home...

Forced to go in for C-section deliveries by doctors, women are finding it safer to give birth at home...

Guneet was lucky to have no complications with her pregnancy, hers was a normal case. She had anticipated a normal delivery, but was in for a rude shock when in the early stages of labour, her doctor told her to go for a Cesarean. She was not even given the chance to attempt giving birth the natural way. Her child is a year old now, but she still experiences pain in her lower abdomen. “I would have preferred to have a normal delivery, but my doctor decided against it,” she whines. For many women like Guneet, the doctor has, unfortunately, had the last word.

Sadly nowadays, most of the hospitals are misleading women to believe that they must undergo a Cesarean surgery regardless of whether there is a medical need for it or not. Statistics highlight the increase in the number of such deliveries. A recent survey revealed that one in three babies in the US are delivered by C-section; it is one in five deliveries in India. Cited among the reasons for this alarming rise is the delay in childbearing by ladies and also increased obesity in moms-to-be. Induced labour is among the main causes of trouble as pointed out by the study. Ladies who delivered via C-section were twice as likely to be among those opting for induced labour, for this is sometimes performed before the cervical dilation progresses to 6 centimeters in diameter. While clinical impatience may be blamed in the above case, several people are also forming the opinion that the surge in C-sections might just be caused by people in the medical profession in a rush to make some easy money.

Unlike any other surgery, in a Cesarean there are chances of the mother contracting infections; healing takes much longer and the surgery could also put her at risk of other long term health hazards. So could hospitals indeed be looking at financial gains by unscrupulously carrying out Cesarean deliveries, even in cases when it is not required?


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Monday, September 03, 2012

No marks For RK

While she broke-up with Ranbir Kapoor in November 2009 after almost a two-year relationship together, Ranbir left his ‘mark’ on Deepika Padukone through the ‘RK’ that she had got tattooed on the nape of her neck back then. She is planning to rectify this by soon opting for laser-assisted tattoo removal, and this is probably a result of her new-found friendship with Sidhartha Mallya. Do we see an ‘SM’ tattoo in the pipeline?


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Friday, August 31, 2012

Wedding wows and woes!

The Disney princess, Hilary Duff, tied the knot with her boyfriend of three years Mike Comrie, a free agent hockey player, at the romantic San Ysidro Ranch in Santa Barbara, which is known for its ‘old Hollywood glamour’. Planned to the last details, sources tell that this sunset ceremony was one of the most stunning weddings ever. The 22-year-old must have been really relieved at the completion of the celebrations, for she had been working-out six days a week in order to fit into the mermaid-style Vera Wang gown!


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Tuesday, August 28, 2012

A princely affair!

The cast and crew of Saif Ali Khan’s home production Agent Vinod recently experienced royal treatment while shooting for the film in Morocco. The junior Nawab of Pataudi stayed at a palace, in a suite which was larger than his residence in Mumbai! The meal preparations for Saif and Kareena were lavish and the table was laid with the finest of silverware. The Love Aaj Kal star was so impressed with the arrangements that he extended his stay to better savour the royal experience! 


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Monday, August 27, 2012

MF INDUSTRY: CHALLENGES & FUTURE OUTLOOK

Leave aside regulatory changes, the Indian mutual fund industry today faces a number of issues which are characterized by lack of investor awareness, low penetration levels, high dependence on corporate sector and spiraling cost of operations. Structural changes in business models are what AMCs now require if they want to sustain profitability by Mona Mehta

Further, the dependence on the corporate sector is still pretty pronounced at 51% when compared with economies like US & China where investments channelised through corporates, comprise only around 15% & 30% of the AUM, respectively. This under volatile market conditions, sound a note of caution for the industry, as high dependence on the corporate sector may result in the fund houses being prone to unexpected redemption pressures. Considering the untapped potential, competition too is all set to gain momentum in the Indian MF industry, which is making dominant desire to progress, a reality, through wealth creation.

In fact, the moot point here is amidst the new transparencies that will be introduced in the system meant to boost investors confidence and ensure fair competition in the industry, it is equally important for AMCs to understand how critical is it for them to collectively work towards facilitating more innovation, financial inclusion, cost management, increased investment in technology to support distribution network, with the support from channel partners and regulators alike.

Ramdeo Aggarwal, Co-Founder and Director – Finance, Motilal Oswal Financial Services too feels that in India, creation of the fund is not coming from the strength, in sync with the trend existing in other parts of the world. For instance, in US, founders of fund create fund based on certain insights and convictions for the benefit of customers post which the funds are traded to get the asset, say, may be worth Rs.1 trillion. Hence, Indian asset management companies (AMCs) now need to work on developing new USPs in handling people’s saving.

“The financial inclusion category today has the most competitive and cost efficient structure in place, which we believe is extremely favourable for the final investor. MFs have been extremely transparent with high disclosure standards which help investors in their process of due diligence. With increase in category awareness and enhanced brand connect, AMCs have been able to reach out to the customer more effectively,” Nipun Kaushal, Head – Marketing, ICICI Prudential AMC tells B&E. However, Kaushal refuses to divulge details of the product innovations that he is planning to come up with due to competitive strategies.

Even the regulator now seems to be paying heed to ensure that MF industry sustains its profitability. In fact, Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has recently issued directions for the mutual fund industry stating that no business houses without five-year financial services experience will be permitted to own stake in an AMC, with an aim to enable only the serious investors to get into the business. “As MF business has a long gestation period, therefore the regulator is now looking for shareholders who can stay for long and are experienced in the industry,” spokesperson of Edelweiss AMC tells B&E.


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Thursday, August 23, 2012

THE QUANTUM OF OPPOSITION FOR THE STEEL PROJECT

POSCO WAS TRULY CAUGHT UNAWARES BY THE QUANTUM OF OPPOSITION FOR THE STEEL PROJECT. RECENT TRENDS PROVIDE HOPE FOR A BREAK IN THE DEADLOCK

Since the signing of the MoU on setting up of POSCO’s Indian subsidiary, POSCO-India Private Limited in June 2005, the company has been trying to convince the villagers within the project area that they will be suitably rehabilitated for any kind of displacement. POSCO maintains, “We will rehabilitate fully and in fair manner all categories of displaced, be it form of home, land or livelihood, and sincerely try to give a life better than before. We will implement the Government of Orissa’s Rehabilitation & Resettlement Policy-2006, which is called the best in the country, in both letter and spirit.” The company has taken so many confidence building measures to create a welcoming atmosphere among the people. Some of those are :

* POSCO declared in 2006 that 97% of the total employee strength of the plant will comprise of Indians. It also declared creation of about 48,000 jobs directly and indirectly in the region, and approximately 467,000 man years of employment during the construction phase. POSCO launched vocational training at its own cost to both men and women at the proposed plant site.
* It conducted first surgery camp in Orissa for palate corrections and launched mobile health check-ups.
* The company announced that it will provide one employment to all the original displaced families and also families losing all agricultural land in accordance with the provision of the Orissa New R&R Policy 2006.
* An office in Kujanga has been opened to establish a communication channel and address the concerns of the local residents.

While most of the families of Nuagaon and Gadakujang panchyats supports POSCO project, majority in Dhinkia don’t want the project. As a gesture of goodwill, POSCO has been providing Rs.25 per head every day to members of 72 families from Dhinkia and Govindpur villages living in make-shift shelters due to threat of anti-POSCO activities.

As some headway is being made, it is pertinent to note how R&R issues have led to loss of significant time and money for POSCO and also for India, which badly needs such FDI. Land acquisition remains a sensitive issue and companies have to learn from the experience of POSCO’s paper trail that they must factor in the possible repercussions of such issues when they plan investments for India. And for India to improve its standing on the global FDI front, one hopes that the POSCO project sees the light of day, sooner rather than later.



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Wednesday, August 22, 2012

NIKHILESH BHATTACHARYYA, ASSOCIATE ECONOMIST, MOODY’S ANALYTICS

Even though the uncertain financial situation in Europe and the Middle East warrants caution, there are stll several reasons for optimism on the domestic front

Although most indicators on the Indian economy are encouraging, persistently high inflation has given cause for concern. Wholesale price inflation was 9.6% y-o-y in April, while consumer price inflation was above 13%. The RBI doesn’t have an inflation target but aims to maintain inflation perceptions between 3-4.5%. These perceptions have been tested over the past year by persistently high inflation.

The uncertain financial situation in Europe and the Middle East has cast a cloud over the outlook for India. An intensification in European debt problems could precipitate another slump in foreign investment and lending and could cause a sharp correction in the stock market following the boom over the past year. These fears were evident recently, as credit default swaps for Indian banks rose significantly while the Sensex slumped for a brief period.

Even though the uncertain financial situation in Europe and the Middle East warrants caution, there are reasons for optimism on the domestic front. Leading indicators point to sustained rapid growth. Importantly for agriculture and inflation, monsoon rains have arrived on schedule, and early indications are encouraging. The Indian Meteorological Department has forecast monsoon rains to be 98% of their long-term average. A normal monsoon would likely lead to a rebound in agricultural output, which would boost GDP growth and ease inflation. However, it is important to bear in mind that last year’s monsoon rains weakened from August, and it will not be clear until harvesting in October as to how agricultural production will fare this year.


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