Tuesday, July 17, 2012

IN THE 21ST CENTURY, INDIA’S TRUE WORTH LIES IN ITS ENTREPRENEURS 2010- 11

Indeed, the maiden decade of this century was a decade of sweeping acquisitions by the Indian players, and Indians on the street revelled at the manner in which the Tatas, Birlas, Ambanis and Mittals (in telecom and steel) went reversing the not so good ol’ status quo; just as they revelled in India’s T20 World Cup triumph. Everyone seemed to agree that size was just about all that mattered! But India’s future cannot be about these large conglomerates and business houses alone, for there are a number of weaknesses in this kind of a structure, even though there are exceptions to the rule. We need competitive markets like telecom. We need businesses that do not shy away from competing globally. We need businesses that can innovate and create new value. We need businesses that do not return to the government for one or the other concession every now and then, or oppose every possible move that can lead to a more dynamic marketplace. In short, we need wave after wave of entrepreneurial energy sweeping across, which can generate new ideas and solutions for the problems we face, and also create unbeatable competitive advantage for the India of the future.



In this decade’s closing issue, B&E salutes India’s greatest 1st generation Wealth Creators and the companies they lead, taken from the BSE 500. The basic criterion (and the difference from normal definitions of what constitutes ‘first generation’) was that any of the founder members or first generation kin should still be in-charge of the company, the company should be listed and it should have attained a particular size in terms of annual revenue (base set at Rs.5 billion). We then calculated the final value of the remaining companies in terms of their mcap growth between January 1, 2010 and December 1, 2010 and employment growth during the financial year 2010, with equal weightage being given to both the parameters. The rationale behind giving equal weightage was that while mcap represents the company’s wealth creation for its shareholders, its employment generation represents the company’s contribution towards the supreme stakeholder, the country.

The final list of 40 top wealth creators was then prepared based on the final value calculated. Some of them, like Bharat Forge, Hero Honda, Infosys, Jet Airways and HCL Technologies, are still creating a momentous difference despite the disadvantage of the base effect. Then there are rising stars like IndusInd Bank, M&M Financial, Yes Bank, Amara Raja Batteries and Radico Khaitan that are achieving critical mass and on their way to set new benchmarks. And there are those like Spanco Ltd., Stride Arcolabs, Jayant Agro Jay Bharat Maruti and Surya Roshni, which have received tremendous encouragement from the markets this year, but would realise that they still have many miles to go. Nevertheless, they are all beacons of hope for an the industry that aspires to reach and create new global benchmarks, and one can only hope that they and their ilk keep growing.



Monday, July 16, 2012

Can we at least rescue growth?

A decade down the road, instant historians will perhaps marvel at this paradox: how a bunch of absolutely true blue brilliant people managed to destroy growth prospects for India. Just look and marvel at the names: Manmohan Singh, Pranab Mukherjee, Jairam Ramesh, P. Chidambaram, Montek Singh Ahluwalia, Kaushik Basu, D. Subbarao…. Each name is brilliance personified. And yet collectively, these pilots of the Indian economy are failing to prevent a crash landing of growth.

The automobile industry is a reliable indicator of what exactly is happening with the economy. And the message from this bellwether sector is stark and ominous: growth prospects are tanking. For three months in a row, sales of cars have been lower than last year. The industry clocked a growth rate of about 30% in 2010-11. In the first six months of the current fiscal, the growth rate is just about 1%. Auto companies have slashed growth forecast from 20% and more, to less than 2% this year. Worse, there is now a dramatic slowdown in the sales growth of commercial vehicles, including auto rickshaws. Even a child can tell you that the RBI decision to raise interest rates 12 times in less than two years is responsible for this calamity. Sales of two wheelers – which are not so dependent on auto loans, have maintained a healthy growth rate. It is only the growth in four wheelers that has crashed. Don’t forget, each automobile sold generates many jobs that range from garage mechanics, workers in tyre factories, workers in accessory plants, attendants in petrol pumps to financial sector executives who process auto loans. So such a drastic slowdown in the auto industry is not hitting just the rich and the middle class, it is deeply hurting the lower middle class and the poor who depend on this industry for jobs.

As worrisome as the astonishing decline in growth of the auto industry is the fact that excise duty collections in September this year have been lower than last year. Many economists are suggesting that this could be an aberration. But I don’t think so. There have been clear indications since January this year that economic activity and sentiments are being adversely affected. No one is now talking about a GDP growth rate of 8%; most will be relieved and happy if GDP growth rate in the current year manages to reach even 7.5%. The opportunities lost for India because of this avoidable tragedy are huge. Better managed, the Indian economy, like the Chinese economy, should grow at at least 10% a year. What does this unrealised 2.5% mean. In purely statistical terms, it means the economy is losing about $75 billion each year. In human terms, the tragedy is even more painful because this failure means persistence of poverty, unemployment, malnutrition and worse.


Saturday, July 14, 2012

Fitting tribute to lasting peace

The Nobel Peace Prize this year was given to three women after an elongated wait by the fairer gender. This time, the committee deserves accolades for a very well considered decision

It had been more than a century since a woman received the Nobel Peace Prize. The unbecoming trend came to an end this year with the committee presenting the honour to not one, but three women in 2011. This year, the award would be shared by Liberian President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, Liberian peace activist Leymah Gbowee and Yemeni political campaigner Tawakul Karman – these women have been credited for their role towards peace movements & women rights. Gbowee led a radical peace movement named Women of Liberia Mass Action for Peace that was instrumental in ending the Second Liberian Civil War. Karman advocated freedom for women journalists and the lifting of the ban on SMS news services. She was also a prominent leader in the protests against Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh.

Liberian President Ellen Johnson’s main achievement is giving the war-ravaged country a relatively peaceful regime since she was elected in 2005. Yes, the prize would further give mileage to Ellen especially at a time when elections are just around the corner. But such a mileage is well earned. This prestigious award would also dilute the political negativity that has been spread by the opposition. Even the Liberian Supreme Court recently dismissed all cases against Ellen (cases on ‘violation of constitutional clause’ as Ellen was abroad for 10 years before the elections; and also the Truth & Reconciliation Commission’s decree that she be barred from office as she apparently supported former president Frank Taylor, convicted now for serious war crimes).


Friday, July 13, 2012

Many stones killing neither bird!

The green energy/jobs promise isn’t working, so what’s Barack’s Plan B?

Barack Obama, the president of US, once promised that he would create 5 million green jobs over 10 years. He promised $2.4 billion for green jobs in 2009, mainly to make batteries for electric cars. California Governor Jerry Brown pledged to create 500,000 clean technology jobs when he made his successful comeback bid. Both seem to have bitten more than they could chew.

According to a study, which has been released by non-partisan Brookings Institution, all clean technology jobs are just 2% of total employment all over the nation. The study has revealed that jobs in the cleantech industry rose by half a million between 2003 and 2010, at an annual rate of 3.4%, a growth that lagged the overall employment growth in the national economy (4.2%, excluding job losses from establishments that closed down) during the period. Obama’s green dream is falling apart as well. To illustrate, a huge amount of around $450 million was planned for what was called Retrofit Ramp Up, a program by the Department of Energy to make houses insulated and more energy efficient. Seattle was selected for receiving $20 million of this funding, and it was projected to get around 2000 green jobs. Till the beginning of August this year, only three homes had been retrofitted and just 14 new jobs had been created. So far, around $162 million has been spent by Department of Labour to train and employ people in “green jobs”, which could help only 8,035 people getting jobs.


Thursday, July 12, 2012

Policy - US-PAK RELATIONS: GROWING TENSION

However, for Pakistan, it is certainly very difficult to take on the Haqqani network. Because then, it would have to fight powerful vested interests in the Pakistan army and the ISI besides trampling on the turf of certain important politicians in the region. Moreover, if Pakistan chose to act against the Haqqani network, it would substantiate India’s allegations that the government of Pakistan is involved in patronising Al-Qaida and other militant outfits. This is a risk that Pakistan cannot possibly afford to take as the move would expose its double standards globally.

On the other hand, ever since these reports came to light, the US has understood how important is it for the American interest in the war on terror to uproot the entire Haqqani network and its nexus with the Pakistan army, intelligence and the political administration. But so far it has failed to force Pakistan to act against the network. All that the otherwise pushy US has been able to do so far is issue directives regarding how Pakistan should act against the Haqqani network. However, instead of putting the issues into perspective, the directives have created more problems. On top of it, Clinton’s visit that was meant to smooth the troubled relations ended up in a disaster of sorts. And some sharp reactions from Kayani, rather a kind of a warning to the US, made matters even worse.

“The US will have to think 10 times before attacking Pakistan,” Kayani told a gathering in Pakistan. He further added that he had warned Americans that Pakistan did not require their military assistance as it’s a nuclear armed country and ‘not Iraq or Afghanistan’. It was for the first time that Pakistan had responded to the US in such a strident tone. The statements made by Kayani show Pakistan will not take things lying down even if it’s at the cost of impairing its special relationship with the U.S. The language, says Bhaskar Roy of the South Asia Analysis Group, is more dangerous than North Korea’s periodic outbursts. “According to Western analysts, Pakistan has continued to expand its nuclear weapons inventory (with help of China) and may soon hold the third largest stockpile of nuclear weapons in the world. Notwithstanding that, Kayani’s words are of grave concern,” he says.

In a way, it is the strategic interest of China in Central Asia that is stopping the US to act strongly against Pakistan. The US knows pretty well that once it walks out from the simmering Af-Pak region, China would waste no time in rushing in to fill the vacuum, mainly for two reasons. First, China’s entry into Pakistan would help it to check the rise of India and the Indian influence in the region. And second, if there is any threat to China in the Central Asia region, it is from India and the wider threat is from the US. So, by getting the US out of Pakistan, China not only would get a toehold in Afghanistan, but it would also be able to control Pakistan and effectively Central Asia, especially with respect to oil, natural gas and other important minerals. For China it would almost be a win-win situation. However, US interests are not very different either and it lies in the vast and untapped natural reserves in Afghanistan. Secret reports of the FBI and the CIA suggest that Afghanistan is an extremely rich place for several important minerals like uranium, diamond, gold and even several radioactive minerals. And that’s apart from the huge reserves of oil and natural gas that have been discovered in this region. So, the interests of both the US and China are somewhat common.