Tuesday, June 15, 2010

Nepal Conundrum

The Maoists are mounting pressure on the PM to resign

The red colour draped around the bodies of 1.25 lakh men and women on the streets of Kathmandu is nothing new. The Maoists, under the leadership of Prachanda, have begun their indefinite strike but this time it is not going to be a simple event as stakes are high for both, the Maoists and the ruling parties.

Since 1996, activities initiated by Maoists, including strike and complete closure have regularly added to the woes of this beleaguered nation where the per annum income is not more than $400. But then, this bandh is at a juncture where politics in Nepal has turned a full circle. What began with the ceasefire of 2006 and the consequent government under the leadership of Prachanda shifted into the hands of Madhav Nepal. Maoists are yet again determined for a change and are demanding for the resignation of Prime Minister Madhav Nepal has been put forth.

Nepal has a support of 22 parties out of 25 which in effect has 350 Members of Parliament with them in the House of 601. But the truth is that even today the government remains limited to the towns and zonal centres. This also means that development is just a word which might sound alien to more than half the population that has been ravaged with blood and gory murders. The poor common man is finding himself at the crossroads.

With the ceasefire, the cadre of Maoists were sent into barracks at seven division headquaters and the reign of the government was handed over to Prachanda. But then, nothing was done on the part of returning the property which was captured by the Maoists and they did not finalise the rehabilitation of the Maoists cadre into various security, paramilitary and police forces. People are scared that they may get embroiled into violence yet again which had claimed about 13000 lives and a displacement of around 1.5 lakh. What about the constitution which was supposed to be completed by May 28, 2010 ? Here lies the faultline.

This entire scene is the result of primarily two issues. It all started as both sides took strong position on the demand for rehabilitation of Maoists cadre in army and the drafting of the constitution. “The differences cropped up when Maoists demanded for the completion of the drafting of constitution and then rehabilitate its cadre whereas the other parties wanted to finish the rehabilitation of Maoists into the security forces and then complete the drafting of constitution,” says Nihar Nayak, Associate Fellow, Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. Here, the important thing to note is that if the exercise of drafting constitution is not completed by May 28, 2010, then the Assembly may get dissolved and the Maoists will lose thair majority status in case Madhav Kumar Nepal resigns or steps down as Prime Minister in between. "Thus, the entire exercise to adopt pressure tactics is to somehow get some decision in favour (of Maoists) and get to rule the government”, adds Nihar Nayak. The Maoists had claimed to gather about 400,000 cadres in Kathmandu but the reports clearly states the number not more than 130,000. Now, once they have congregated such a huge number they should have prepared for logistics of the cadres which the sources say has not been done and this is causing a lot of trouble for the cadre. The National Congress has also made it clear that the solution could be reached with dialogue instead of using bandh and pressure as tactics. With 22 parties making it clear that they are with Madhav Nepal's government, it is going to be a long drawn tug of war. The Maoists know that if they will not be able to get a decision in their favour, then they may face disenchantment amongst the cadre. The ruling parties are of the view that they will not let Maoists succeed in their tactics, as this will only lead to a situation where Maoists will get everything done for their benefits.

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Source :
IIPM Editorial, 2009


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