Wednesday, April 09, 2008

Down with inflation!

We might have won the war, but the battle still needs to be settled. After tightening the flow of money by successively hiking cost of borrowing, RBI appears to have won the war against inflation, but the central bank says there is no room for complacency, and gave the signal that there is no immediate relief in the near future. According to the latest available data, inflation for the week ending June 16, 2007, from a year earlier rose by 4.03%, as compared to 4.28% for the previous week, slowest ever pace in the last 14-months. RBI has hiked overnight rates nine times since October 2004 to curb the domestic demand. Commenting on the inflation numbers, Finance Minister P. Chidambaram said, “The central bank tightening the monetary policy and rupee appreciation had helped moderate inflation; more rate rises may not be needed if the trend continues.” The guidance of Finance Minister is definitely a good sign for borrowers, but is it enough for banks to lower lending rates? Perhaps the answer is no. As banks are still struggling to overcome the increased borrowing cost, especially the PSUs, which didn’t even get a chance to hike rates. As inflation closely moves to the level the Reserve Bank of India had targeted for the medium term, it should prompt the central bank not to resort to further tightening of its monetary stance. Still, we would say that, that is simply our wish; ...but if only wishes were really horses...!

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Source : IIPM Editorial, 2008

An IIPM and Professor Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist) Initiative

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